This role focuses on leading long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks to inform strategic planning and safeguard the long-term value of the company. The manager will develop macroeconomic and scenario models to evaluate future energy trends and perform stress-testing to assess the company's resilience under varying market conditions. Additionally, the manager will produce actionable insights for strategy, build and lead a business intelligence team emphasizing UAE National development, and create robust outlooks for decision-making over extended periods. Candidates should have substantial experience in scenario planning within the energy sector, a command of market dynamics, and the ability to influence stakeholders across divisions.
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Location
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Key Accountabilities
- Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks that feed the Strategic Plan and capital allocation.
- Develop macroeconomic and sector-level scenario models evaluating future energy trends, risks and opportunities under multiple transition pathways.
- Perform integrated portfolio and P&L stress-testing to assess the company's resilience and agility under different market and policy environments.
- Lead initial high-level financial and economic modelling (CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities) for new growth opportunities, ensuring alignment with corporate value-creation targets.
- Assess external and internal strategic drivers and translate their implications into actionable insight for the long-term Strategic Plan.
- Build, lead and develop the business intelligence and scenario planning team, with emphasis on UAE National development in line with Emiratisation targets.
- Produce outlooks that remain robust across 5 to 25 years without drifting into unusable theory – every scenario must translate into a decision signal.
- Develop a living scenario model that senior leadership actually runs decisions through.
- Develop early-warning signals and strategic guardrails accepted and used by the other IGP mandates.
- Develop strong influence without authority across divisions and Group entities.
- Develop a high-calibre team and ensure retention of the team.
Minimum Requirements
- Bachelor's degree with 12+ years of experience, with at least 5 in long-range outlook, scenario planning, business intelligence or corporate and strategic planning in oil and gas, LNG, petrochemicals or energy consulting.
- Proven ownership of 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply and price outlooks and multi-pathway scenario sets used for real corporate decisions.
- Genuine command of gas and LNG market structure, contracting and the economics that move them.
- CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities and P&L stress-testing experience at portfolio level; able to build and defend the model.
- Track record of turning analysis into board and EXCOM-ready recommendations; excellent structured written and spoken English.
- Evidence of securing data, assumptions and alignment across divisions and separate legal entities without direct authority, plus building and developing a specialist team.
